PSA 10$15,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$264.27PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$96.70PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$344.49$520.90 net sale vs $176.41 cost
EV rangeEV range: +140% / +195% / +262% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $222.33 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $74.11PSA 10 rate 4.1–6.3% (80% interval on 35 / 687); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.1% → adjusted 2.8% (Vintage, ×0.55 at $74 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.1% adjusted (≈ 0.2% population)
CostsRaw $74.11 + shipping $5.00 + grading $86.48 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.82 = $176.41Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $13,799.93 · PSA 9 $221.40 · PSA 8 $77.59 · ≤7 $51.84PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Premium 1; about 129 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 6.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 45%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium56.8x