PSA 10$65.28Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 9$24.04Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$81.24$12.56 net sale vs $93.80 cost
EV rangeEV range: -89% / -87% / -84% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.90PSA 10 rate 0.5–5.9% (80% interval on 1 / 55); comps ±20.5% (comp quality 59). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 43% / 8 31% / ≤7 26%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.8% → adjusted 0.8% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $19.90 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.91 = $93.80Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $50.62 · PSA 9 $15.23 · PSA 8 $9.97 · ≤7 $9.97PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.9% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 43%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x