Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Discovery #32/75 · 1st Edition (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchUmbreon (32) · Neo Discovery · #32/75
✓Raw pricePulse $300.00 vs tracker $300.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate13.2% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$2,493 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$350.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$499.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+20%
PSA 10$2,493PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$350.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$499.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$77.28$472.62 net sale vs $395.34 cost
EV rangeEV range: +8% / +20% / +28% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $253.97 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $300.00PSA 10 rate 11.7–14.9% (80% interval on 94 / 711); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 9% / 9 41% / 8 27% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 13.2% → adjusted 8.6% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $300 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 4.0% adjusted (≈ 6.2% population)
CostsRaw $300.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $71.94 (expected; 9% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.40 = $395.34Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,133.92 · PSA 9 $294.98 · PSA 8 $423.70 · ≤7 $226.32PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 9% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 125 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium7.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate13.2%
PSA 10 pop94
Total pop711
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity79/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply75/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 13.2%PSA 10 pop 94/711PSA 10/9 premium 7.1xSupply constraint 75/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$300.00
Pulse price$300.00
Delta0%
CheckedSep 30, 2026
Umbreon (32)PSA comps refreshed Sep 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$109.35 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.