EV rangeEV range: -76% / -72% / -55% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.50PSA 10 rate 0.0–21.5% (80% interval on 0 / 6); comps ±16.0% (comp quality 68). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 63.7% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $19.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.90 = $93.39Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $131.40 · PSA 9 $47.25 · PSA 8 $9.66 · ≤7 $9.66PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.6x