PSA 10$146.75PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$10.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$3.25PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$84.03$1.63 net sale vs $85.65 cost
EV rangeEV range: -99% / -98% / -92% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.04PSA 10 rate 0.0–8.0% (80% interval on 0 / 19); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 70.7% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $12.04 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.62 = $85.65Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $120.54 · PSA 9 $3.61 · PSA 8 $0.00 · ≤7 $0.00PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium14.0x