PSA 10$190.50PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$174.60PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$52.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$1.00$94.94 net sale vs $95.94 cost
EV rangeEV range: -20% / -1% / +19% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $21.96PSA 10 rate 34.3–51.3% (80% interval on 23 / 54); comps ±16.5% (comp quality 67). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 19% / 9 36% / 8 24% / ≤7 20%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 42.6% → adjusted 19.5% (Vintage, ×0.46 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 20.8% adjusted (≈ 45.4% population)
CostsRaw $21.96 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.99 = $95.94Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $158.09 · PSA 9 $144.45 · PSA 8 $39.23 · ≤7 $11.56PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.1x