PSA 10$5,133PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$13,650PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$8,200PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$6,148$7,284 net sale vs $1,135 cost
EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,535.76 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $511.92PSA 10 rate 2.1–4.8% (80% interval on 9 / 285); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 38% / 8 32% / ≤7 27%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.2% → adjusted 2.1% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $512 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenPSA 10 comp is at or below a miss value; check comps
CostsRaw $511.92 + shipping $5.00 + grading $603.97 (expected; 73% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.29 = $1,135.18Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,399.46 · PSA 9 $12,483.38 · PSA 8 $7,170.91 · ≤7 $390.01PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 73% chance of an upcharge to Premier/Premium 1; about 44 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.8% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 39%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.4x