PSA 10$39.99PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$28.44PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$106.04$19.62 net sale vs $125.66 cost
EV rangeEV range: -89% / -84% / -80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $50.64PSA 10 rate 8.1–17.2% (80% interval on 10 / 84); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 11.9% → adjusted 6.2% (Vintage, ×0.52 at $51 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $50.64 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.03 = $125.66Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $28.92 · PSA 9 $19.01 · PSA 8 $19.01 · ≤7 $19.01PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium1.4x