PSA 10$1,246PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$350.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$258.27PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$99.33$248.47 net sale vs $149.14 cost
EV rangeEV range: +35% / +67% / +100% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $93.84 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $72.45PSA 10 rate 6.8–9.6% (80% interval on 52 / 641); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 8.1% → adjusted 4.5% (Vintage, ×0.55 at $72 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $72.45 + shipping $5.00 + grading $60.89 (expected; 4% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.81 = $149.14Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,063.73 · PSA 9 $294.98 · PSA 8 $216.25 · ≤7 $50.56PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 4% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.6x