Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Discovery #09/75 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchPoliwrath (9) · Neo Discovery · #09/75
!Raw pricePulse $69.00 vs tracker $48.35 (-30%)
✓Gem rate5.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$4,418 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$824.19 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$218.17 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+217%
PSA 10$4,418PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$824.19PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$218.17PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$332.30$485.68 net sale vs $153.38 cost
EV rangeEV range: +193% / +217% / +242% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $207.00 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $69.00PSA 10 rate 4.6–6.6% (80% interval on 47 / 849); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 44% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.5% → adjusted 3.0% (Vintage, ×0.55 at $69 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $69.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.76 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.62 = $153.38Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,786.53 · PSA 9 $701.94 · PSA 8 $181.84 · ≤7 $47.90PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 129 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate5.5%
PSA 10 pop47
Total pop849
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity85/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply89/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 5.5%PSA 10 pop 47/849PSA 10/9 premium 5.4xSupply constraint 89/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$48.35
Pulse price$69.00
Delta-30%
CheckedOct 9, 2026
Poliwrath (9)PSA comps refreshed Oct 9, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$63.60 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.