PSA 10$1,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$62.68PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$30.39PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$413.96$104.87 net sale vs $518.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: -84% / -80% / -75% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $429.99PSA 10 rate 11.2–16.1% (80% interval on 42 / 312); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 9% / 9 41% / 8 27% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 13.5% → adjusted 8.8% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $430 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 59.3% adjusted (≈ 91.2% population)
CostsRaw $429.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $17.85 = $518.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $852.83 · PSA 9 $48.40 · PSA 8 $20.68 · ≤7 $20.68PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium16.0x