PSA 10$76.78PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$21.70PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$20.50PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$79.55$14.34 net sale vs $93.89 cost
EV rangeEV range: -87% / -85% / -82% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.99PSA 10 rate 6.8–15.1% (80% interval on 9 / 88); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 5% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 10.2% → adjusted 4.6% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $19.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.91 = $93.89Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $60.49 · PSA 9 $13.22 · PSA 8 $12.19 · ≤7 $10.04PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.5x