EV rangeEV range: -85% / -79% / -67% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $21.94PSA 10 rate 4.0–20.9% (80% interval on 2 / 21); comps ±16.0% (comp quality 68). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 9.5% → adjusted 4.4% (Vintage, ×0.46 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 53.0% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $21.94 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.99 = $95.92Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $169.40 · PSA 9 $14.76 · PSA 8 $11.55 · ≤7 $11.55PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium8.7x