PSA 10$2,457PriceCharting
PSA 9$127.00PriceCharting
PSA 8-PriceCharting
Net EV−$270.18$111.87 net sale vs $382.06 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -71% / -57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $297.50PSA 10 rate 0.2–2.1% (80% interval on 1 / 157); comps ±26.5% (comp quality 47). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 26% / 8 39% / ≤7 34%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.6% → adjusted 0.4% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $298 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 14.9% adjusted (≈ 22.9% population)
CostsRaw $297.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $60.57 (expected; 0% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.99 = $382.06Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,103.17 · PSA 9 $103.59 · PSA 8 $103.59 · ≤7 $103.59PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 0% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 26%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium19.3x