PSA 10$351.05PriceCharting
PSA 9$114.12PriceCharting
PSA 8-PriceCharting
Net EV−$36.78$88.21 net sale vs $125.00 cost
EV rangeEV range: -48% / -29% / -9% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $50.00PSA 10 rate 19.2–27.2% (80% interval on 42 / 183); comps ±26.0% (comp quality 48). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 12% / 9 40% / 8 26% / ≤7 22%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.0% → adjusted 12.0% (Vintage, ×0.52 at $50 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 27.6% adjusted (≈ 52.8% population)
CostsRaw $50.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.01 = $125.00Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $295.88 · PSA 9 $92.54 · PSA 8 $33.22 · ≤7 $33.22PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x