PSA 10$10,450PriceCharting
PSA 9$825.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$417.08PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$75.80$511.90 net sale vs $587.69 cost
EV rangeEV range: -26% / -13% / 0% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $234.11 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $488.52PSA 10 rate 1.1–1.6% (80% interval on 49 / 3584); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 23% / 8 41% / ≤7 36%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.4% → adjusted 0.9% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $489 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 1.8% adjusted (≈ 2.8% population)
CostsRaw $488.52 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.33 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $19.84 = $587.69Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $9,364.33 · PSA 9 $702.64 · PSA 8 $352.55 · ≤7 $352.55PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Premium 1; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.6% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 23%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium12.7x