Identity checkMismatch
✓CardEX Emerald #14/106 · Rev Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchGroudon - 014/106 · Emerald · #14/106
✕Raw pricePulse $279.99 vs tracker $13.16 (-95%)
✓Gem rate6.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$1,019 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$849.18 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$351.25 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+33%
PSA 10$1,019PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$849.18PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$351.25PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$119.36$483.46 net sale vs $364.10 cost
EV rangeEV range: +11% / +33% / +56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $249.05 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $279.99PSA 10 rate 4.5–8.6% (80% interval on 15 / 239); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 6.3% → adjusted 4.1% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $280 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $279.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $60.81 (expected; 4% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.31 = $364.10Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $869.13 · PSA 9 $723.39 · PSA 8 $296.05 · ≤7 $210.86PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 4% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate6.3%
PSA 10 pop15
Total pop239
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity66/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply88/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 6.3%PSA 10 pop 15/239PSA 10/9 premium 1.2xSupply constraint 88/100
Raw validationprice mismatch
TCG market$13.16
Pulse price$279.99
Delta-95%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Groudon - 014/106PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$36.96 floor, 2 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.