Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Discovery #02/75 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchForretress (2) · Neo Discovery · #02/75
✓Raw pricePulse $61.66 vs tracker $61.66 (+0%)
✓Gem rate12.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$1,170 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$260.80 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$82.91 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+33%
PSA 10$1,170PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$260.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$82.91PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$46.33$184.68 net sale vs $138.35 cost
EV rangeEV range: +22% / +33% / +46% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $64.56 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $61.66PSA 10 rate 10.4–13.7% (80% interval on 78 / 652); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.0% → adjusted 6.5% (Vintage, ×0.54 at $62 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 1.0% adjusted (≈ 1.9% population)
CostsRaw $61.66 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.28 (expected; 6% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.41 = $138.35Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $998.48 · PSA 9 $218.42 · PSA 8 $65.75 · ≤7 $42.23PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 6% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.0%
PSA 10 pop78
Total pop652
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity76/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply78/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 12.0%PSA 10 pop 78/652PSA 10/9 premium 4.5xSupply constraint 78/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$61.66
Pulse price$61.66
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Forretress (2)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$57.41 floor, 5 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.