Identity checkMatches
✓CardExpedition #012/165 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchFeraligatr (12) · Expedition · #012/165
✓Raw pricePulse $234.88 vs tracker $201.91 (-14%)
✓Gem rate3.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$1,327 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$1,168 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 8 comp$311.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+59%
PSA 10$1,327PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$1,168PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$311.33PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$190.02$513.45 net sale vs $323.43 cost
EV rangeEV range: +31% / +59% / +88% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $269.96 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $234.88PSA 10 rate 2.8–4.0% (80% interval on 49 / 1455); comps ±20.5% (comp quality 59). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 35% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.4% → adjusted 2.2% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $235 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $234.88 + shipping $5.00 + grading $67.43 (expected; 37% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.12 = $323.43Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,133.46 · PSA 9 $996.91 · PSA 8 $261.79 · ≤7 $176.02PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 37% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 123 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 36%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate3.4%
PSA 10 pop49
Total pop1,455
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity65/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply93/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 3.4%PSA 10 pop 49/1455PSA 10/9 premium 1.1xSupply constraint 93/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$201.91
Pulse price$234.88
Delta-14%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Feraligatr (12)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$234.88 floor, 2 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.