Identity checkMatches
✓CardNeo Genesis #004/111 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchFeraligatr (4) · Neo Genesis · #004/111
✓Raw pricePulse $204.46 vs tracker $200.00 (-2%)
✓Gem rate4.6% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$6,400 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$477.62 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$279.64 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+44%
PSA 10$6,400PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$477.62PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$279.64PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$131.12$431.59 net sale vs $300.47 cost
EV rangeEV range: +13% / +44% / +80% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $185.60 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $204.46PSA 10 rate 4.0–5.1% (80% interval on 106 / 2324); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 39% / 8 31% / ≤7 26%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 4.6% → adjusted 2.9% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $204 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.1% adjusted (≈ 0.1% population)
CostsRaw $204.46 + shipping $5.00 + grading $75.58 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.43 = $300.47Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $5,487.24 · PSA 9 $404.51 · PSA 8 $234.59 · ≤7 $152.53PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 129 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.1% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 40%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium13.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate4.6%
PSA 10 pop106
Total pop2,324
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity85/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply91/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 4.6%PSA 10 pop 106/2324PSA 10/9 premium 13.4xSupply constraint 91/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$200.00
Pulse price$204.46
Delta-2%
CheckedJun 21, 2026
Feraligatr (4)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026
Signal context1
Support$176.30 floor, 4 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.