PSA 10$349.73PriceCharting
PSA 9$34.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$6.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$87.70$11.24 net sale vs $98.93 cost
EV rangeEV range: -90% / -89% / -60% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $24.85PSA 10 rate 0.0–19.0% (80% interval on 0 / 7); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.47 at $25 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 30.9% adjusted (≈ 66.2% population)
CostsRaw $24.85 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.09 = $98.93Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $294.75 · PSA 9 $24.63 · PSA 8 $0.28 · ≤7 $0.28PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium10.0x