PSA 10$727.78PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$268.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$244.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$37.81$173.17 net sale vs $135.35 cost
EV rangeEV range: +5% / +28% / +52% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $40.60 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $59.99PSA 10 rate 2.5–4.4% (80% interval on 20 / 595); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 37% / 8 33% / ≤7 28%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.4% → adjusted 1.8% (Vintage, ×0.54 at $60 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $59.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.37 = $135.35Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $619.20 · PSA 9 $224.60 · PSA 8 $204.01 · ≤7 $40.94PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.4% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 38%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x