Identity checkMatches
✓CardLegendary Collection #009/110 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchDark Vaporeon · Legendary Collection · #009/110
!Raw pricePulse $136.99 vs tracker $101.13 (-26%)
✓Gem rate1.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$3,711 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 9 comp$657.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$220.70 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+30%
PSA 10$3,711PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$657.50PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$220.70PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$65.18$283.12 net sale vs $217.95 cost
EV rangeEV range: +7% / +30% / +55% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $108.57 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $136.99PSA 10 rate 1.2–2.2% (80% interval on 18 / 1105); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 26% / 8 39% / ≤7 34%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.6% → adjusted 1.0% (Vintage, ×0.60 at $137 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $136.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $62.83 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.13 = $217.95Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,179.61 · PSA 9 $558.88 · PSA 8 $184.01 · ≤7 $100.41PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.2% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 26%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate1.6%
PSA 10 pop18
Total pop1,105
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity91/100
LabelElite
Confidence100/100
Supply97/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 1.6%PSA 10 pop 18/1105PSA 10/9 premium 5.6xSupply constraint 97/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$101.13
Pulse price$136.99
Delta-26%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Dark VaporeonPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$104.41 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.