PSA 10$292.20PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$438.86PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$192.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$48.11$222.77 net sale vs $270.89 cost
EV rangeEV range: -33% / -18% / -5% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $53.45 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $190.76PSA 10 rate 2.0–3.3% (80% interval on 28 / 1082); comps ±19.5% (comp quality 61). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 32% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.6% → adjusted 1.6% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $191 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $190.76 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.14 = $270.89Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $245.38 · PSA 9 $371.24 · PSA 8 $159.38 · ≤7 $141.94PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 32%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.7x