PSA 10$4,149PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$243.59PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$88.73PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$40.59$156.63 net sale vs $116.04 cost
EV rangeEV range: +15% / +35% / +59% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $31.95 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $37.14PSA 10 rate 2.3–4.0% (80% interval on 21 / 689); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 35% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 3.0% → adjusted 1.5% (Vintage, ×0.50 at $37 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.2% adjusted (≈ 0.5% population)
CostsRaw $37.14 + shipping $5.00 + grading $64.39 (expected; 2% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.51 = $116.04Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,555.38 · PSA 9 $203.65 · PSA 8 $70.75 · ≤7 $23.29PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 2% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 4.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 36%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium17.0x