Dark Charizard (4) 1st Edition Holofoil

Team Rocket - #04/82 - Vintage - Holo Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: ≥ $365.82
Current: $121.94
Expected ROI: > 300% (> 300% … > 300%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: PriceTracker mismatch

Rank #88 of today's pool · score 25Top EV

Held back by: PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $121.94 vs tracker $384.48).
Today's $121.94 is well under the $365.82 max buy.
Comps are thin (65), so the range is wide (> 300% … > 300%).

PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $121.94 vs tracker $384.48)Extreme EV needs comp reviewHigh EV needs strong compsPSA 9 far above raw on a low-gem card (PSA 9 $2,215 is 18.2× raw $121.94)Aging graded comps

Checklist 0 of 6 checked

Must check: Open this printing's TCGplayer listing and confirm the price: expect about $384.48, not $121.94.TCGplayer
Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $16,981).eBay sold PSA 10
Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $16,981, PSA 9 $2,215).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: PSA 9 sells for 18.2× raw on a card that rarely grades well; confirm recent PSA 9 sales and that the raw copy is a real 9 candidate (we use PSA 9 $2,215).eBay sold PSA 9
Check eBay sold PSA listings from the last 30 days (we use PSA 10 $16,981, PSA 9 $2,215).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$121.94

PT ok$384 +215%Scarcity 81Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$724.99

All-time low*

$47.00

vs high

-83%

Not currently flagged by any dashboardView on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMismatch

✓CardTeam Rocket #04/82 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)

✓Tracker matchDark Charizard (4) · Team Rocket · #04/82

✕Raw pricePulse $121.94 vs tracker $384.48 (+215%)

✓Gem rate4.8% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$16,981 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 9 comp$2,215 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 8 comp$1,414 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics> 300%check comps

PSA 10$16,981PriceCharting crawler

PSA 9$2,215PriceCharting crawler

PSA 8$1,414PriceCharting crawler

Net EV$1,304$1,588 net sale vs $284.83 cost

EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $365.82 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $121.94PSA 10 rate 4.5–5.0% (80% interval on 555 / 11614); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 3% / 9 39% / 8 32% / ≤7 27%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 4.8% → adjusted 2.8% (Vintage, ×0.59 at $122 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s

CostsRaw $121.94 + shipping $5.00 + grading $147.02 (expected; 73% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.87 = $284.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $15,730.63 · PSA 9 $1,895.58 · PSA 8 $1,208.04 · ≤7 $88.79PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 73% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Express/Premium 1; about 82 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.0% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 40%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium7.7x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate4.8%

PSA 10 pop555

Total pop11,614

SourceGemRate card search enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 22, 2026

Scarcity81/100

LabelStrong

Confidence100/100

Supply91/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 4.8%PSA 10 pop 555/11614PSA 10/9 premium 7.7xSupply constraint 91/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$384.48

Pulse price$121.94

Delta+215%

CheckedJun 22, 2026

Dark Charizard (4)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026

Signal context0

StatusNo active dashboard flag

Other printings of this card

Unlimited Holofoil$385.44 1st Edition Holofoil$121.94

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.