PSA 10$54.03PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$8.50PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8-PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$82.07$1.99 net sale vs $84.07 cost
EV rangeEV range: -100% / -98% / -92% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $10.51PSA 10 rate 0.0–15.4% (80% interval on 0 / 9); comps ±26.0% (comp quality 48). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $11 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $10.51 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.57 = $84.07Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $40.97 · PSA 9 $1.99 · PSA 8 $1.99 · ≤7 $1.99PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium6.4x