PSA 10$1,443PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$237.67PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$143.33PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$21.92$199.75 net sale vs $177.82 cost
EV rangeEV range: -5% / +12% / +27% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $57.20 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $99.99PSA 10 rate 7.9–10.5% (80% interval on 73 / 804); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 5% / 9 43% / 8 28% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 9.1% → adjusted 5.2% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $100 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 3.2% adjusted (≈ 5.5% population)
CostsRaw $99.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.04 (expected; 5% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.80 = $177.82Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,232.59 · PSA 9 $198.57 · PSA 8 $117.61 · ≤7 $71.83PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 5% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.1x