PSA 10$8,320PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$733.47PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$453.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$191.69$526.94 net sale vs $335.24 cost
EV rangeEV range: +28% / +57% / +89% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $270.42 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $243.32PSA 10 rate 2.5–3.3% (80% interval on 81 / 2818); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 32% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.9% → adjusted 1.9% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $243 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $243.32 + shipping $5.00 + grading $70.03 (expected; 2% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.90 = $335.24Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $7,287.47 · PSA 9 $624.08 · PSA 8 $383.38 · ≤7 $182.54PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 2% chance of an upcharge to Premier; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.3% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 32%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium11.3x