PSA 10$1,785PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$141.21PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$117.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$46.72$144.66 net sale vs $191.38 cost
EV rangeEV range: -42% / -24% / 0% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1.01 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $109.99PSA 10 rate 3.5–8.0% (80% interval on 9 / 170); comps ±18.0% (comp quality 64). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 44% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.3% → adjusted 3.1% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $110 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 6.7% adjusted (≈ 11.5% population)
CostsRaw $109.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $64.30 (expected; 3% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $6.09 = $191.38Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,526.53 · PSA 9 $115.79 · PSA 8 $95.01 · ≤7 $79.56PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 3% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium12.6x