PSA 10$21,500PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,268PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$288.30PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$193.28$503.62 net sale vs $310.34 cost
EV rangeEV range: +40% / +62% / +92% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $285.09 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $219.90PSA 10 rate 0.6–1.4% (80% interval on 10 / 1096); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 21% / 8 42% / ≤7 37%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.9% → adjusted 0.6% (Vintage, ×0.64 at $220 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $219.90 + shipping $5.00 + grading $69.61 (expected; 21% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.83 = $310.34Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $20,136.48 · PSA 9 $1,083.11 · PSA 8 $242.02 · ≤7 $164.45PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 21% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Premium 1; about 126 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.4% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 21%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium17.0x