Identity checkMatches
✓CardEX Dragon #1/97 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchAbsol · EX Dragon · #1/97
✓Raw pricePulse $169.99 vs tracker $169.99 (+0%)
✓Gem rate9.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$1,635 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$446.12 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$174.89 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+22%
PSA 10$1,635PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$446.12PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$174.89PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$56.33$313.71 net sale vs $257.38 cost
EV rangeEV range: +13% / +22% / +32% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $152.56 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $169.99PSA 10 rate 8.1–11.4% (80% interval on 50 / 518); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 6% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 9.7% → adjusted 6.0% (Vintage, ×0.62 at $170 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.5% adjusted (≈ 0.7% population)
CostsRaw $169.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $68.30 (expected; 6% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.09 = $257.38Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,398.15 · PSA 9 $377.47 · PSA 8 $144.69 · ≤7 $125.90PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 6% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 127 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate9.7%
PSA 10 pop50
Total pop518
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity76/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply82/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 9.7%PSA 10 pop 50/518PSA 10/9 premium 3.7xSupply constraint 82/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$169.99
Pulse price$169.99
Delta0%
CheckedOct 4, 2026
AbsolPSA comps refreshed Oct 4, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$52.54 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown57% off peak, Basing
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.