PSA 10$335.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$62.49PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$39.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$57.71$32.07 net sale vs $89.78 cost
EV rangeEV range: -66% / -64% / -42% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $16.02PSA 10 rate 0.0–15.4% (80% interval on 0 / 9); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 45% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Vintage, ×0.45 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 23.1% adjusted (≈ 51.3% population)
CostsRaw $16.02 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.77 = $89.78Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $282.10 · PSA 9 $48.23 · PSA 8 $28.76 · ≤7 $6.97PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.4x