Identity checkMatches
✓CardFossil #01/62 · 1st Edition Holofoil (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchAerodactyl (1) · Fossil · #01/62
!Raw pricePulse $94.89 vs tracker $77.42 (-18%)
✓Gem rate1.0% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$4,989 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$319.54 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
!PSA 8 comp$79.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics-27%
PSA 10$4,989PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$319.54PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$79.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$46.11$127.08 net sale vs $173.19 cost
EV rangeEV range: -45% / -27% / -10% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $94.89PSA 10 rate 0.9–1.2% (80% interval on 59 / 5802); comps ±22.0% (comp quality 56). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 19% / 8 42% / ≤7 38%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.0% → adjusted 0.6% (Vintage, ×0.57 at $95 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 1.8% adjusted (≈ 3.1% population)
CostsRaw $94.89 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.67 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.62 = $173.19Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,276.07 · PSA 9 $268.84 · PSA 8 $62.40 · ≤7 $62.40PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 132 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.2% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 20%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium15.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate1.0%
PSA 10 pop59
Total pop5,802
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity90/100
LabelElite
Confidence100/100
Supply98/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 1.0%PSA 10 pop 59/5802PSA 10/9 premium 15.6xSupply constraint 98/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$77.42
Pulse price$94.89
Delta-18%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Aerodactyl (1)PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$72.60 floor, 3 tests
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.