Mudkip (32) Rev Holo

SM - Celestial Storm - #32/168 - SM - Common

PassSlab

Max buy: PSA 10 ≤ $58.52PSA 9 ≤ $8.75
Current: $15.24
Slab: Search for discounted slabs
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Estimated PSA 10/9 comps
Thin comps (comp quality 59, under 65)

Scored on demand (not in today's pool) · score 28

Held back by: Estimated PSA 10/9 comps.
The slab market isn't strong enough yet (liquidity 46, comps 59).
A PSA 10 sells for 4.6× a PSA 9, and only 2 exist.

Estimated PSA 10/9 compsPriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $15.24 vs tracker $0.86)No PSA 8 downside compVery thin populationThin graded compsThin graded liquidity

Checklist 0 of 5 checked

Must check: Replace the estimated PSA 10/9 prices with real sold comps (we use PSA 10 $94.00, PSA 9 $20.35).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: Open this printing's TCGplayer listing and confirm the price: expect about $0.86, not $15.24.TCGplayer
Search eBay sold for a PSA 8 to size the downside.eBay sold PSA 8
Fewer than 20 graded copies; treat the gem rate as rough.
Add a few more PSA sold comps if you can (we use PSA 10 $94.00, PSA 9 $20.35).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9 eBay sold PSA 8

Current

$15.24

PT price$0.86 -94%Scarcity 71Grade EV -82%

All-time high*

$110.42

All-time low*

$0.53

vs high

-86%

Has support - floor $0.74 - 2x On sale - 79% off - Basing View on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMismatch

✓CardSM - Celestial Storm #32/168 · Rev Holo (1 of 2 printings)

✓Tracker matchMudkip (32) · SM - Celestial Storm · #32/168

✕Raw pricePulse $15.24 vs tracker $0.86 (-94%)

✓Gem rate16.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing

✕PSA 10 comp$94.00 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing

✕PSA 9 comp$20.35 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing

!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.

Graded economics-82%

PSA 10$94.00Market grade-curve estimate

PSA 9$20.35Market grade-curve estimate

PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate

Net EV−$73.18$15.79 net sale vs $88.97 cost

EV rangeEV range: -89% / -82% / -70% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.24PSA 10 rate 7.1–34.2% (80% interval on 2 / 12); comps ±20.5% (comp quality 59). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 9% / 9 54% / 8 23% / ≤7 14%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 16.7% → adjusted 9.2% (SM, ×0.55 at $15 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenCan't break even at these prices

CostsRaw $15.24 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.74 = $88.97Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $75.27 · PSA 9 $12.06 · PSA 8 $6.37 · ≤7 $6.37PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7

PSA 10/9 premium4.6x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate16.7%

PSA 10 pop2

Total pop12

SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 21, 2026

Scarcity71/100

LabelWatch

Confidence85/100

Supply69/100

Demand21/100

Gem rate 16.7%PSA 10 pop 2/12PSA 10/9 premium 4.6xSupply constraint 69/100

Raw validationprice mismatch

TCG market$0.86

Pulse price$15.24

Delta-94%

CheckedOct 13, 2026

Mudkip (32)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days

Signal context2

Support$0.74 floor, 2 tests

Drawdown79% off peak, Basing

Other printings of this card

Rev Holo$15.24 Normal$0.88

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.