Identity checkMatches
✓CardBase Set (Shadowless) #018/102 · 1st Edition (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchDragonair · Base Set (Shadowless) · #018/102
✓Raw pricePulse $198.00 vs tracker $198.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate7.8% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
!PSA 10 comp$2,681 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 9 comp$284.65 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 comp$199.34 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+2%
PSA 10$2,681PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$284.65PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$199.34PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$4.82$297.04 net sale vs $292.22 cost
EV rangeEV range: -6% / +2% / +10% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $126.96 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $198.00PSA 10 rate 7.0–8.6% (80% interval on 135 / 1740); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 5% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 7.8% → adjusted 4.9% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $198 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 4.6% adjusted (≈ 7.3% population)
CostsRaw $198.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $74.15 (expected; 5% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.07 = $292.22Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,295.16 · PSA 9 $238.89 · PSA 8 $165.68 · ≤7 $147.54PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 5% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 127 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium9.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate7.8%
PSA 10 pop135
Total pop1,740
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity82/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply85/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 7.8%PSA 10 pop 135/1740PSA 10/9 premium 9.4xSupply constraint 85/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$198.00
Pulse price$198.00
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
DragonairPSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown64% off peak, Recovering
Other printings of this card
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.