Victory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2012) [2nd Place] Holo

Black and White Promos - #BW30 - Vintage - Promo

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: $92.48
Current: $85.90
Expected ROI: +66% (+24% … +98%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: PriceTracker mismatch

Rank #65 of today's pool · score 23Top EV

Held back by: PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $85.90 vs tracker $53.84).
Today's $85.90 is under the $92.48 max buy.
Comps are thin (65), so the range is wide (+24% … +98%).

PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $85.90 vs tracker $53.84)Aging graded comps

Checklist 0 of 3 checked

Must check: Open this printing's TCGplayer listing and confirm the price: expect about $53.84, not $85.90.TCGplayer
Check eBay sold PSA listings from the last 30 days (we use PSA 10 $1,475, PSA 9 $259.50).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$85.90

PT ok$53.84 -37%Scarcity 77Grade EV +66%

All-time high*

$117.95

All-time low*

$19.96

vs high

-27%

Not currently flagged by any dashboardView on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMismatch

✓CardBlack and White Promos #BW30 · Holo

✓Tracker matchVictory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2012) [2nd Place] · Black and White Promos · #BW30

✕Raw pricePulse $85.90 vs tracker $53.84 (-37%)

✓Gem rate19.2% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$1,475 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 9 comp$259.50 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

✓PSA 8 comp$158.31 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics+66%

PSA 10$1,475PriceCharting crawler

PSA 9$259.50PriceCharting crawler

PSA 8$158.31PriceCharting crawler

Net EV$108.35$272.68 net sale vs $164.32 cost

EV rangeEV range: +24% / +66% / +98% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $92.48 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $85.90PSA 10 rate 14.8–24.6% (80% interval on 20 / 104); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 11% / 9 40% / 8 27% / ≤7 22%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 19.2% → adjusted 10.9% (Vintage, ×0.57 at $86 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.9% adjusted (≈ 1.6% population)

CostsRaw $85.90 + shipping $5.00 + grading $62.16 (expected; 11% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.26 = $164.32Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,260.48 · PSA 9 $217.31 · PSA 8 $130.47 · ≤7 $60.95PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 11% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 130 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium5.7x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate19.2%

PSA 10 pop20

Total pop104

SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 20, 2026

Scarcity77/100

LabelStrong

Confidence100/100

Supply65/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 19.2%PSA 10 pop 20/104PSA 10/9 premium 5.7xSupply constraint 65/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$53.84

Pulse price$85.90

Delta-37%

CheckedJun 21, 2026

Victory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2012) [2nd Place]PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026

Signal context0

StatusNo active dashboard flag

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-13). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.