Identity checkMatches
✓CardXY - Primal Clash #106/160 · Holo
✓Tracker matchM Gardevoir EX · XY - Primal Clash · #106/160
✓Raw pricePulse $30.10 vs tracker $25.67 (-15%)
✓Gem rate5.9% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$1,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$52.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$37.54 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-42%
PSA 10$1,000PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 9$52.00PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$37.54PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV−$43.69$60.69 net sale vs $104.37 cost
EV rangeEV range: -58% / -42% / -23% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $30.10PSA 10 rate 4.6–7.6% (80% interval on 25 / 422); comps ±18.0% (comp quality 64). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 55% / 8 26% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.9% → adjusted 3.5% (XY, ×0.58 at $30 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 8.8% adjusted (≈ 15.1% population)
CostsRaw $30.10 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.28 = $104.37Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $852.83 · PSA 9 $39.23 · PSA 8 $26.82 · ≤7 $17.85PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 7.6% vs XY typical 8.5%): PSA 9 60% → 57%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium19.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate5.9%
PSA 10 pop25
Total pop422
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity88/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply89/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 5.9%PSA 10 pop 25/422PSA 10/9 premium 19.2xSupply constraint 89/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$25.67
Pulse price$30.10
Delta-15%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
M Gardevoir EXPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$24.28 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.