PSA 10$4,944PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$376.32PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$300.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$71.56$272.25 net sale vs $200.69 cost
EV rangeEV range: +22% / +36% / +48% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $122.55 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $119.31PSA 10 rate 1.9–2.8% (80% interval on 39 / 1703); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 29% / 8 37% / ≤7 32%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.3% → adjusted 1.4% (Vintage, ×0.59 at $119 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $119.31 + shipping $5.00 + grading $63.90 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $6.48 = $200.69Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,237.64 · PSA 9 $317.57 · PSA 8 $252.07 · ≤7 $86.76PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 2.8% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 30%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium13.1x