![Victory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2011) [2nd Place]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/90354_200w.jpg)
Identity checkMatches
✓CardBlack and White Promos #BW30 · Holo
✓Tracker matchVictory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2011) [2nd Place] · Black and White Promos · #BW30
✓Raw pricePulse $86.42 vs tracker $79.79 (-8%)
✓Gem rate14.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$1,391 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$296.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$145.97 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+52%
PSA 10$1,391PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$296.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$145.97PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$84.65$249.02 net sale vs $164.37 cost
EV rangeEV range: +27% / +52% / +69% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $96.67 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $86.42PSA 10 rate 11.2–19.2% (80% interval on 19 / 129); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 41% / 8 27% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 14.7% → adjusted 8.3% (Vintage, ×0.57 at $86 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $86.42 + shipping $5.00 + grading $61.66 (expected; 8% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.29 = $164.37Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,188.82 · PSA 9 $249.48 · PSA 8 $119.88 · ≤7 $61.35PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 8% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate14.7%
PSA 10 pop19
Total pop129
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity78/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply73/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 14.7%PSA 10 pop 19/129PSA 10/9 premium 4.7xSupply constraint 73/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$79.79
Pulse price$86.42
Delta-8%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Victory Cup - BW30 (Battle Road Autumn 2011) [2nd Place]PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context0
StatusNo active dashboard flag
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-08-04). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.