PSA 10$1,121PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$626.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$247.72PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$13.33$268.65 net sale vs $281.98 cost
EV rangeEV range: -19% / -5% / +10% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $88.44 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $201.35PSA 10 rate 0.5–1.8% (80% interval on 4 / 417); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 1% / 9 24% / 8 40% / ≤7 35%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 1.0% → adjusted 0.6% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $201 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 2.6% adjusted (≈ 4.1% population)
CostsRaw $201.35 + shipping $5.00 + grading $60.11 (expected; 1% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.51 = $281.98Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $956.43 · PSA 9 $531.85 · PSA 8 $207.20 · ≤7 $150.12PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 1% chance of an upcharge to Priority; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 1.8% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 24%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.8x