Umbreon ex Holo

EX Unseen Forces - #112/115 - Vintage - Ultra Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy: ≥ $1,502
Current: $500.50
Expected ROI: > 300% (> 300% … > 300%)
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Stale raw price

Rank #87 of today's pool · score 28Top EV

Held back by: Stale raw price.
Today's $500.50 is well under the $1,502 max buy.
Even the worst case returns > 300% on comps of 93 (best case > 300%).

Stale raw priceExtreme EV needs comp reviewHigh EV needs strong compsPSA 9 far above raw on a low-gem card (PSA 9 $14,000 is 28.0× raw $500.50)Wide raw spread

Checklist 0 of 6 checked

Must check: Refresh or check the raw price; it is more than a week old.
Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $49,999).eBay sold PSA 10
Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $49,999, PSA 9 $14,000).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: PSA 9 sells for 28.0× raw on a card that rarely grades well; confirm recent PSA 9 sales and that the raw copy is a real 9 candidate (we use PSA 9 $14,000).eBay sold PSA 9
Compare the cheapest NM listing with the market price.
Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$500.50

PT ok$501 0%Scarcity 82Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$999.99

All-time low*

$314.95

vs high

-50%

Not currently flagged by any dashboardView on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMatches

✓CardEX Unseen Forces #112/115 · Holo

✓Tracker matchUmbreon ex · EX Unseen Forces · #112/115

✓Raw pricePulse $500.50 vs tracker $500.50 (+0%)

✓Gem rate2.6% · GemRate · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$49,999 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

✓PSA 9 comp$14,000 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

✓PSA 8 comp$8,100 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.

Graded economics> 300%check comps

PSA 10$49,999PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 9$14,000PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 8$8,100PokemonPriceTracker 90d

Net EV$6,386$7,487 net sale vs $1,101 cost

EV rangeEV range: > 300% / > 300% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,501.50 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $500.50PSA 10 rate 2.2–3.2% (80% interval on 46 / 1749); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 2% / 9 31% / 8 36% / ≤7 31%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.6% → adjusted 1.7% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $501 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s

CostsRaw $500.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $580.24 (expected; 69% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.81 = $1,100.55Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $47,918.88 · PSA 9 $12,825.07 · PSA 8 $7,073.43 · ≤7 $381.19PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 69% chance of an upcharge to Premier/Premium 1/Premium 2; about 48 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.2% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 32%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw

PSA 10/9 premium3.6x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate2.6%

PSA 10 pop46

Total pop1,749

SourceGemRate

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 22, 2026

Scarcity82/100

LabelStrong

Confidence100/100

Supply95/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 2.6%PSA 10 pop 46/1749PSA 10/9 premium 3.6xSupply constraint 95/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$500.50

Pulse price$500.50

Delta0%

CheckedSep 30, 2026

Umbreon exPSA comps refreshed Sep 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days

Signal context0

StatusNo active dashboard flag

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-01). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.