PSA 10$4,783PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$753.57PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$318.35PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$130.83$438.63 net sale vs $307.80 cost
EV rangeEV range: +31% / +43% / +53% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $255.24 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $221.29PSA 10 rate 2.2–3.9% (80% interval on 19 / 650); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 2% / 9 35% / 8 34% / ≤7 29%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 2.9% → adjusted 1.9% (Vintage, ×0.64 at $221 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $221.29 + shipping $5.00 + grading $65.40 (expected; 2% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $10.11 = $307.80Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $4,099.78 · PSA 9 $641.33 · PSA 8 $267.82 · ≤7 $165.52PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 2% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 131 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 3.9% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 35%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.3x