Identity checkMatches
✓CardPlasma Storm #138/135 · Holo
✓Tracker matchRandom Receiver · Plasma Storm · #138/135
✓Raw pricePulse $40.99 vs tracker $41.68 (+2%)
✓Gem rate8.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$495.65 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$229.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$48.95 · PokemonPriceTracker 365d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+2%
PSA 10$495.65PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$229.99PokemonPriceTracker 365d
PSA 8$48.95PokemonPriceTracker 365d
Net EV$2.36$118.02 net sale vs $115.66 cost
EV rangeEV range: -18% / +2% / +25% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $0.41 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $40.99PSA 10 rate 6.5–11.9% (80% interval on 16 / 182); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 4% / 9 43% / 8 29% / ≤7 24%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 8.8% → adjusted 4.5% (Vintage, ×0.51 at $41 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 3.7% adjusted (≈ 7.3% population)
CostsRaw $40.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.68 = $115.66Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $419.98 · PSA 9 $191.99 · PSA 8 $36.61 · ≤7 $26.26PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate8.8%
PSA 10 pop16
Total pop182
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity69/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply83/100
Demand77/100
Gem rate 8.8%PSA 10 pop 16/182PSA 10/9 premium 2.2xSupply constraint 83/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$41.68
Pulse price$40.99
Delta+2%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Random ReceiverPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context1
Support$39.39 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.