Identity checkMatches
✓CardPOP Series 4 #009/017 · Normal
✓Tracker matchPokemon Fan Club · POP Series 4 · #009/017
✓Raw pricePulse $102.00 vs tracker $102.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate18.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$2,650 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$749.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$407.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+191%
PSA 10$2,650PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$749.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$407.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$399.50$609.10 net sale vs $209.60 cost
EV rangeEV range: +167% / +191% / +216% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $306.00 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $102.00PSA 10 rate 15.3–22.4% (80% interval on 37 / 199); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 11% / 9 40% / 8 27% / ≤7 22%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 18.6% → adjusted 10.8% (Vintage, ×0.58 at $102 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $102.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $91.10 (expected; 11% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.50 = $209.60Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,268.90 · PSA 9 $638.26 · PSA 8 $344.33 · ≤7 $73.39PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 11% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 121 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate18.6%
PSA 10 pop37
Total pop199
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity70/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply66/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 18.6%PSA 10 pop 37/199PSA 10/9 premium 3.5xSupply constraint 66/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$102.00
Pulse price$102.00
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Pokemon Fan ClubPSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$97.48 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.