Identity checkMismatch
✓CardAquapolis #H20/H32 · Holo
✓Tracker matchOctillery (H20) · Aquapolis · #H20/H32
✕Raw pricePulse $160.99 vs tracker $75.46 (-53%)
✓Gem rate12.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$10,700 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$366.56 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$170.54 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+197%
PSA 10$10,700PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$366.56PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$170.54PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$612.55$923.34 net sale vs $310.79 cost
EV rangeEV range: +174% / +197% / +250% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $482.97 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $160.99PSA 10 rate 10.5–14.4% (80% interval on 60 / 487); comps ±8.0% (comp quality 84). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 8% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 12.3% → adjusted 7.6% (Vintage, ×0.62 at $161 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 0.3% adjusted (≈ 0.6% population)
CostsRaw $160.99 + shipping $5.00 + grading $131.16 (expected; 8% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.64 = $310.79Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $9,608.05 · PSA 9 $309.19 · PSA 8 $140.96 · ≤7 $118.95PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 8% chance of an upcharge to Premium 1; about 124 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium29.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate12.3%
PSA 10 pop60
Total pop487
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity81/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply77/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 12.3%PSA 10 pop 60/487PSA 10/9 premium 29.2xSupply constraint 77/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$75.46
Pulse price$160.99
Delta-53%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Octillery (H20)PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$75.79 floor, 3 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.