Identity checkMatches
✓CardAquapolis #150/147 · Holo
✓Tracker matchNidoking (150) · Aquapolis · #150/147
✓Raw pricePulse $500.00 vs tracker $500.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate5.1% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$13,053 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$3,009 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$4,100 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+220%
PSA 10$13,053PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$3,009PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$4,100PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$1,794$2,610 net sale vs $816.35 cost
EV rangeEV range: +193% / +220% / +247% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,500.00 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $500.00PSA 10 rate 4.5–5.7% (80% interval on 112 / 2211); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 41% / 8 30% / ≤7 25%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 5.1% → adjusted 3.3% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $500 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $500.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $297.16 (expected; 75% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.19 = $816.35Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $11,902.20 · PSA 9 $2,576.87 · PSA 8 $3,513.32 · ≤7 $380.80PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 75% chance of an upcharge to Super Express/Premium 1; about 46 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.7% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 43%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate5.1%
PSA 10 pop112
Total pop2,211
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity80/100
LabelStrong
Confidence100/100
Supply90/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 5.1%PSA 10 pop 112/2211PSA 10/9 premium 4.3xSupply constraint 90/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$500.00
Pulse price$500.00
Delta0%
CheckedOct 13, 2026
Nidoking (150)PSA comps refreshed Oct 13, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$454.00 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown50% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.