Identity checkMismatch
✓CardPOP Series 4 #011/017 · Holo (1 of 2 printings)
✓Tracker matchMudkip · POP Series 4 · #011/017
✕Raw pricePulse $92.14 vs tracker $35.05 (-62%)
✓Gem rate11.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$844.11 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$341.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
✓PSA 8 comp$310.00 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+52%
PSA 10$844.11PriceCharting crawler
PSA 9$341.00PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$310.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$87.62$256.29 net sale vs $168.67 cost
EV rangeEV range: +22% / +52% / +87% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $94.80 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $92.14PSA 10 rate 7.9–16.3% (80% interval on 11 / 96); comps ±17.5% (comp quality 65). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 7% / 9 42% / 8 28% / ≤7 23%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 11.5% → adjusted 6.5% (Vintage, ×0.57 at $92 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $92.14 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.54 = $168.67Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $719.04 · PSA 9 $287.25 · PSA 8 $260.65 · ≤7 $65.77PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.5x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate11.5%
PSA 10 pop11
Total pop96
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity72/100
LabelWatch
Confidence96/100
Supply78/100
Demand94/100
Gem rate 11.5%PSA 10 pop 11/96PSA 10/9 premium 2.5xSupply constraint 78/100
Raw validationprice mismatch
TCG market$35.05
Pulse price$92.14
Delta-62%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
MudkipPSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 365 days
Signal context0
StatusNo active dashboard flag
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-12). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.