PSA 10$2,364PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$292.21PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$209.18PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$88.48$382.28 net sale vs $293.80 cost
EV rangeEV range: +13% / +30% / +41% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $180.24 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $200.00PSA 10 rate 14.0–17.8% (80% interval on 93 / 588); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 40% / 8 27% / ≤7 22%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 15.8% → adjusted 10.0% (Vintage, ×0.63 at $200 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 4.8% adjusted (≈ 7.5% population)
CostsRaw $200.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $73.89 (expected; 10% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $8.91 = $293.80Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,023.26 · PSA 9 $245.38 · PSA 8 $174.13 · ≤7 $149.08PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 10% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 123 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium8.1x