Lugia Holo

Aquapolis - #149/147 - Vintage - Secret Rare

VerifyRaw to grade

Max buy

≥ $1,500

Current

$500.00

Expected ROI

> 300% (> 300% … > 300%)

Confidence

Low confidence in this verdict, show why

• Low confidence in this verdict
• Held by a blocker: PriceTracker mismatch

Rank #89 of today's pool · score 24Top EV

• Held back by: PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $500.00 vs tracker $2,225).
• Today's $500.00 is well under the $1,500 max buy.
• Even the worst case returns > 300% on comps of 73 (best case > 300%).

PriceTracker mismatch (Pulse $500.00 vs tracker $2,225)Extreme EV needs comp reviewHigh EV needs strong compsPSA 9 far above raw on a low-gem card (PSA 9 $9,661 is 19.3× raw $500.00)Aging graded comps

Checklist 0 of 6 checked

1. Must check: Open this printing's TCGplayer listing and confirm the price: expect about $2,225, not $500.00.TCGplayer
2. Must check: EV over 300% is usually a bad comp; confirm the PSA 10 price with recent sales (we use PSA 10 $20,871).eBay sold PSA 10
3. Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $20,871, PSA 9 $9,661).eBay sold PSA 10eBay sold PSA 9
4. Must check: PSA 9 sells for 19.3× raw on a card that rarely grades well; confirm recent PSA 9 sales and that the raw copy is a real 9 candidate (we use PSA 9 $9,661).eBay sold PSA 9
5. Check eBay sold PSA listings from the last 30 days (we use PSA 10 $20,871, PSA 9 $9,661).eBay sold PSA 10eBay sold PSA 9
6. Ask for front and back photos; check centering (55/45 or better), corners and surface.

Current

$500.00

PT ok$2,225 +345%Gem 4%Scarcity 71Grade EV > 300%check comps

All-time high*

$4,500

All-time low*

$500.00

vs high

-89%

At support - floor $500.00 - 2xView on TCGplayereBay Buy It NoweBay Auctions

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-10-14). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.